Pelham, Alabama 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

313
FXUS64 KBMX 260520
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1220 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1217 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2025

 - There is a medium to high chance for dangerous heat conditions
   Sunday through Wednesday. This will be a long-duration period
   of extreme heat conditions with no overnight relief, affecting
   people and pets without adequate cooling and hydration.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 1110 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2025

The forecast area remains positioned to the west of a strong mid
to upper level ridge centered over Coastal South Carolina while a
surface stationary front extends from across Central Kansas
eastward across the Northern Ohio River Valley into Downstate New
York. A surface trough was analyzed just off of the Louisiana and
Texas Coasts with another depicted across much of the Florida
Peninsula.

Tonight through Monday.

The mid to upper level ridge to our east will gradually migrate
westward with time, becoming centered across Upstate South
Carolina towards Midday on Saturday and expanding in size by
midday on Sunday, extending from over Eastern New Mexico eastward
to over nearly all of the Southeastern States. By Monday, the
ridging will reach its maximum footprint, encompassing roughly
two-thirds of the country from over the Southern Rockies east to
over much of Virgina south to over much of Florida. Toward the
surface, high pressure will initially be centered across the
Carolina Coastline Saturday morning and will migrate westward with
time, becoming positioned across much of Georgia, Alabama and
East- Central Tennessee by Sunday morning and extending from the
ArkLaTex Region northeast into Eastern Tennessee by Monday
morning.

Increasing heights aloft will result in deeper thicknesses and
result in higher temperatures, this also influenced by higher
surface pressures that will help to further restrict potential for
shower and thunderstorm activity, though this effect across the
forecast area takes shape on Sunday through Monday as PoPs will be
isolated (10-30%) east to scattered (35-55%) southwest on
Saturday with PoPs generally around 10 percent Sunday across the
northern third and far southwest portions of the area and
similarly on Monday with PoPs up to 15 percent across the northern
half of the forecast area.

Heat will be the primary concern from late weekend into early
next week with increasing high temperatures from the lower 90s
Saturday east and central to readings in the mid 90s areawide
Sunday followed by readings in the mid to upper 90s on Monday. The
impacts of heat stress will accumulate with little to no relief
as overnight lows also increase from the low 70s tonight to the
low to mid 70s Saturday night and from the mid to upper 70s by
Sunday night. These effects will only be compounded further due to
deep low-level moisture remaining across the area, resulting in
heat index values in the mid to upper 90s Saturday afternoon to
readings from the upper 90s in the higher terrain east to values
around 103 west and central on Sunday to values around or slightly
higher than 105 across all but the far eastern higher elevations
on Monday.

05

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Friday)
Issued at 1110 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2025

The mid to upper level ridging will begin to contract in size
through midweek as it becomes centered over the South-Central
Plains. A weakness in the mid levels looks to develop over the
Carolina Coast during the day Tuesday and move southwest with
time, moving over the Southeast portion of Alabama by Wednesday
morning and continuing west over much of Mississippi by Thursday
before dissipating by Friday morning. The stationary front across
the Ohio River Valley Region will drift southward as a weak cold
front late Monday with some potential convective cold pool/outflow
boundaries pushing far south enough across the Tennessee Valley
Region to enter into our northern counties later in the day
Tuesday into Wednesday while a weak surface reflection of the mid
to upper level low will develop across Southeast Georgia and move
southwest toward Dothan by Wednesday morning and continue moving
west into Mississippi by Thursday morning. Strong surface high
pressure is progged to develop across Southwest Canada from mid to
late week and will help support the surface front to our north to
advance south across the Tennessee Valley Thursday into Friday,
potentially moving into the northern quarter of the state by
Friday morning.

Expect isolated shower and thunderstorm activity to increase from
the southeast on Tuesday with chances from 20-40 percent with
best potential far southeast. Rain and storm chances will increase
further on Wednesday with isolated (30-45%) chances far northwest
and scattered (50-70%) chances generally along and southeast of
the Interstate 59 corridor. Widespread scattered (55-65%) chances
for showers and storms are expected areawide Thursday and again on
Friday. Agree with the previous shift that we will need to watch
for the potential for some heavy thunderstorm activity due to
strong low-level instability as rain and storm chances increase
Tuesday through Thursday.

Heat concerns will persist into Tuesday with highs from the mid
90s in the higher terrain east to the upper 90s elsewhere followed
by readings in the low 90s east to the mid 90s north and west on
Wednesday. Further relief comes Thursday with readings in the
lower 90s across much of the area and by Friday highs will range
from the upper 80s far north to the low 90s south. Heat stress
will continue through Wednesday as lows Monday night will be in
the mid 70s northeast and upper 70s southwest. Low temperatures
will range from the low 70s east to the mid 70s west Tuesday night
through Thursday night.

05

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2025

Expect dry conditions overnight with some MVFR conditions
expected. Cumulus will develop by late morning Saturday and will
result in shower and thunderstorm activity with best potential
southwest, have mentioned shower activity from 21z to 00z Saturday
afternoon and evening at all terminals for this issuance. Clouds
will decrease Saturday night with a return to dry conditions
areawide toward the end of this cycle.

NOTE: AMD LTD TO CLD VIS AND WIND for KMGM until further notice
due to lingering comms issues.

05

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

One more day of isolated to scattered showers and storms are
expected Saturday with best chances southwest. Expect drier and
hotter conditions on Sunday through midweek next week with rain
and storm chances decreasing while low-level humidity remains
high. As a result, minimum RH values will remain above critical
thresholds during this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     92  72  95  73 /  30  10  10   0
Anniston    91  73  94  75 /  30  10  10   0
Birmingham  93  74  95  76 /  40  20  10   0
Tuscaloosa  90  74  95  76 /  40  20  10   0
Calera      90  73  94  76 /  40  20  10   0
Auburn      90  74  94  77 /  20  10   0   0
Montgomery  92  73  95  76 /  30  20  10   0
Troy        92  72  95  75 /  30  20  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...05